
There are an estimated 500,000 detectable earthquakes in the world each year.
Image Credit: Scientific Frontline
Scientific Frontline: "At a Glance" Summary
- Main Discovery: NASA satellite data tracking Earth's gravity changes cannot be used to predict oncoming earthquakes, debunking previous hypotheses about early warning capabilities.
- Methodology: Scientists analyzed measurements from NASA's twin GRACE and GRACE-FO satellites, comparing multiple gravity data solutions and anomalous global GPS statistics from the months preceding major megathrust earthquakes.
- Key Data: The study examined data gathered several hundred miles underground prior to the 2010 8.8 magnitude Maule earthquake in Chile and the 2011 9.0 magnitude Tohoku earthquake in Japan.
- Significance: The findings demonstrate that satellite gravity precursors are largely invalid for forecasting, offering no better predictive capability for subduction zone events than conventional geodetic techniques.
- Future Application: Researchers plan to analyze the recent 8.8 magnitude earthquake in Kamchatka, Russia, to continue refining how historical seismic data is combined with advances in geodesy and environmental monitoring.
- Branch of Science: Seismology and Geodesy
- Additional Detail: The research highlights that a few decades of modern satellite data are insufficient to accurately model earthquakes, as risk factors, geological geometry, and material composition vary significantly by region.
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